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COVID update October 19, 2020

FYI: I am neither a Democrat or Republican. I am politically fiercely independent.

SUMMARY: 

While the U.S. leads the world with the UK in testing per population, the U.S.  also has one of the highest COVID deaths per million. This appears to reject the scientific consensus that testing more people leads to fewer deaths if the U.S. is one of the world leaders in this area.  

The states won by Trump in 2016 and states currently governed by Republicans fare significantly better than states who voted for Clinton and states currently governed by Democrats. States who voted for Clinton have a 38% higher overall COVID death rate, while states currently governed by Democrats have a 23% higher death rate than states governed by Republicans.

Even when we control for population density, population of age over 65, and social indexing scores, Republican led states fared better in COVID deaths than Democrat led states by 33%. 

There is clearly something wrong when we are told that Democrats are better equipped at handling COVID than Trump or the Republicans. Even when looking at the numbers from multiple different data points, the data shows that Republicans have had significantly more success than Democrats in controlling COVID. 

In the U.S., the states with harsher lockdown rules fared more poorly in both metrics of those who had the disease and died, and the overall deaths per million population. This tells us that locking down didn’t protect those already sick, nor did it protect those who weren’t sick from getting sick and dying. Compared to states with more lax lockdown measures, the top ten lockdown states had 90% more COVID deaths amongst those where infected, and 81% more COVID deaths in the overall population. 

Worldwide, countries with more stringent control fared far worse than countries with less stringent control to combat the virus. The overall COVID death toll was 351% higher in the top ten highest stringent controls vs. the bottom ten countries. 

Put simply and succinctly: 

LOCKDOWNS HAVE BEEN, AND CURRENTLY ARE, A DISASTER. 

 

Some things you may not know about COVID. This data is current as of October 19, 2020 and is easily verifiable using data available to anyone who wants to check. I am neither Republican or Democrat, just a number cruncher with a keen interest in COVID: 

  1. Out of 90 countries with a population greater than 10 million people, the U.S. ranks #2 in COVID tests per million population. The UK ranks #1. 
  2. Compared with 13 European countries with populations over 10 million, The U.S. ranks #4 in excess deaths behind Spain, Germany, and Portugal, between Jan 5 and Sept. 13, 2020, when compared to the average number of deaths over a five year period for the same time. 
  3. Compared with those same 13 European countries with populations over 10 million, the U.S. ranks #3 in COVID deaths per million, behind Belgium and Spain. 
  4. The top ten U.S. states (and Washington, D.C.) in COVID deaths per million, averaged 1,210. 7 out of these top 10 states (including D.C.) voted democrat in the 2016 election. 6 of the top ten states have Democrat governors, while 3 have Republican governors. 
  5. When comparing all states who voted Clinton vs. states who voted for Trump in the 2016 election: The average COVID deaths are 671 per million in  states voting for Clinton, and 488 per million in states voting for Trump.  
  6. When comparing all states led by Democrat governors to states led by Republican governors: The average COVID deaths are 616 per million in states led by Democrat governors, and 502 per million in states led by Republican governors. 
  7. In regards to lockdowns: The top 10 U.S. states (Including Washington, D.C.) with the highest percentage of population staying at home during COVID, averaged a 5.7% COVID death rate, and averaged 937 COVID deaths per million. 7 of these top 10 states are governed by Democrats, 2 by Republicans. The top 10 U.S. states with the lowest percentage of the population staying at home during COVID, averaged a 3.0% COVID death rate, and averaged 518 COVID deaths per million. All 10 of these states are governed by Republicans. 
  8. When controlling for population density, age over 65, percent staying at home, and social distancing index score, 8 states were compared.  Of the 4 states (NY, PA, DE, CT) governed by Democrats, the  COVID death rate averaged 7%, with 1088 deaths per million. Of the 4 states (MA, MD, FL, OH) governed by Republicans, the COVID death rate averaged 5.0% with 816 deaths per million.
  9. When considering the “stringency index”, and comparing the top ten countries with populations of at least 10 million and the highest “stringency index” (avg. index 79.2) to the top ten countries with the lowest stringency index: The COVID deaths averaged 419 per million in the top ten stringency index countries, and averaged 93 COVID deaths per million (avg. index 33.4) in the top ten lowest stringency index countries. 

Respectfully,

Scott Hastings D.O.

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